Living on Plague Island

There is a huge amount of misinformation in circulation about Covid, possibly more than for any other area of social, economic and health policy in history. 

This is partly driven by people who seek to actively mislead in a malicious way, particularly on social media. But it is also true that the mainstream media, particularly in the UK are also guilty, sometimes unintentionally. Respectable parts of the media including the Guardian, and the BBC, as well as the usual suspects such as the Telegraph, the Mail that regularly print or speak information that is misleading. 

 There is also a great deal of airbrushing out of any mention of Covid in reports on economic and social issues eg absence from schools, where Covid infections are continuing to have an impact. This no doubt reflects the desire of editors to tell readers/viewers what they want to hear and  to avoid doom and gloom stories, particularly about Covid.  

We will return to the drivers of this spreading of misinformation and how different population groups perceive the threat from Covid in a forthcoming blog, but the purpose of this blog is to draw on readily available sources to refute a number of common myths. What follows draws almost exclusively on the Myth Busting series produced by a number of the Independent Sage team over the summer.

Forecasting Covid infections – is it pointless because all models are wrong?

Ever since Covid emerged as a threat in early 2020 analysts have tried to forecast what is likely to happen e.g to the number of infections, deaths etc on various scenarios.

This modelling has, over the last 3 and a half years, come in for a great deal of criticism, particularly from lockdown sceptics who tend to portray models as scare mongering.

In a video Kit Yates discusses whether models are always wrong. He points out that it is true to say that if the underlying data isn’t available to feed into the models they will be subject to error. But Kit also highlights that the publication of modelling in itself can cause people to change their behaviour and this was particularly true early in the pandemic. Hence the reason why the worst case scenario drawn up by Imperial College and others did not happen was that the publication of modelling caused people to change their behaviour.

Do Behavioural Scientists promote fear mongering?

Susan Michie discusses whether behavioural scientists seek to frighten people into changing their behaviours. The short answer is no. Raising fear on its own does not work, it causes a knee jerk reaction of denial in some people and an overreaction in others.

It is however, important that people are informed about the risks that they and others face and that they are enabled to know what to do and how to reduce their risks.

Dealing with sceptical or misinformed people is, of, course a challenge. Susan proposes this be addressed through very straightforward messaging delivered by people who are likely to be trusted, alongside clear information about how to take action.

The only Mitigation Measures available are Lockdowns

The knee jerk reaction of many people in response to the proposition that we need to control the spread of Covid is that lockdowns are being proposed. This is nonsense. Lockdowns are a failure of public health policy.

Christina Pagel discusses the measures that need to be in place to minimise the need for lockdown. Key measures include strong community testing and good contact tracing systems.Neither of these were in place in the UK in part due to the significant cut backs in the number of local health officers over the last decade and the general slowness of government to respond to the threats posed by Covid.

Christina also discusses the kind of measures that many of us have been pushing for years, often against a brick wall of indifference. These include cleaning indoor air via ventilation and other measures etc – see my blog on Avoiding Covid.

The need for investment in better vaccines and measures in relation to the role out of vaccines is also needed, along with a range of social policy measures including reducing health inequalities, improved housing and the outdoor environment etc.

Masks don’t Work?

One of the most enduring myths throughout the pandemic, but particularly since the publication of a highly misleading Cochrane review in 2023, is that face masks don’t work. We discuss the arguments and evidence on this in the blog Avoiding Covid.

Trish Greenhalgh distils some key points in a video. The key message is that masks work but the type of mask you wear is very important. Cloth masks will not provide you with enough protection and it is best to go for a FFP2 or FFp3. It is important that your mask fits you, blue surgical masks that have gaps at the side, for example, are considerably less effective than a FFP2 – one estimate is they are 70 times less effective.

It is also important to wear your mask. A common error is to take your mask off when you are not close to other people in an indoor setting. This is wrong because we now know that Covid is airborne and hangs about in the air for hours after someone with Covid has been in it. It is not like flu which tends to transmit via large droplets.

Do viruses evolve to become milder?

One of the enduring myths about Covid is that it is evolving in a way whereby it is becoming milder with each new wave. Kit Yates discusses the evidence. This is a complex issue and it is clear that the virus is mutating over time in order to try to evade our immune system and spread more and more effectively.

Kit concludes that it is vaccines that have ensured that fewer people become seriously ill, not the inherent nature of the way in which the virus is evolving. Moreover, the virus still has the potential to make us, and particularly vulnerable people seriously ill.

It is unclear what will happen next re how the virus evolves, whether vaccines and treatments become more or less effective over time.

Were the vaccines rushed through?

A number of commentators have claimed that the vaccines were rushed through too quickly and in an unsafe way. Professor Sheena Cruikshank discusses this. The vaccine was developed at breakneck speed but this does not mean corners were cut. Sheena highlights that the reasons why vaccines usually take so long to develop and approve reflects the time taken to get funding, bring together collaborating researchers, the lengthy and bureaucratic nature of ethics and other committee procedures, getting trial volunteers recruited etc.

The unprecedented emergency posed by the Covid pandemic in 2020 allowed these timescales to be drastically reduced because of flexility of funding bodies, significant co-operation and pulling together of researchers across disciplinary boundaries in the face of an international emergency and the keenness of the public to come forward and volunteer for trials. Ethics and other committtee’s also demonstrated significant willingness to do their job to the same standards as normal by prioritising the Covid vaccine development over all other matters in their inboxes

Is Natural Immunity better than vaccine immunity?

Another common myth particularly amongst unvaccinated is that developing natural immunity through catching the infection is far better than the immunity gained from being vaccinated. Sheena Cruickshank discusses this and confirms that there is no evidence that one way of developing immunity is better than another. The key point is that getting infected to achieve immunity is very risky because you could become very seriously ill or develop long Covid.

What is the point of vaccines if we can still get infected?

Another reason for the less than ideal take up of the vaccine, particularly in deprived communities, is that people see little point in getting vaccinated with the associated time commitment and possible side effects, if they can still get infected Sheena Cruickshank discusses. The reason why people keep getting infected is that the virus keeps mutating and trying to dodge our immune systems. But the overwhelming evidence is that vaccines do prevent the vast majority of people from becoming seriously ill and dying and reduces the chances of developing long Covid to some degree. Being vaccinated also means people are 25% less likely to pass on the virus to others.

Covid Vaccines cause harm including cancer, miscarriage, and infertility

One of the most dangerous myths is that the vaccine causes cancer. Dr Lennard Lee from the University of Oxford discusses the evidence and confirms that there is no link between getting vaccinated and developing cancer.

The evidence on whether there is any truth behind the theory that the vaccine causes miscarriage is discussed by Sheena Cruickshank. She confirms on the basis of international evidence that there is no evidence to support the claim, but there is some evidence that having a vaccinated mother is protective to babies in the first few months of life.

Sheena Cruickshank also discusses the evidence on infertility and confirms that there is no evidence that the vaccine leads to infertility.